We produced a report analyzing a scenario of the evolution of the Italian energy system 2019-2050. The scenario was developed in alignment with Proxigas’ vision of expected transformations and investments as the national and European energy and climate policies are implemented.
Scope
The Italian Gas Industry is facing a major transformation of the energy market that will accelerate during the upcoming decades. It’s expected that total energy consumption will decrease. Correspondingly, it’s foreseen that gas to a large extent will be replaced with renewable sources of energy.
National and European energy and climate policies aim to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. In response to the hardships and global energy market disruption caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the European Commission is implementing its REPowerEU Plan. The plan was launched in May 2022. It focuses on measures to save energy, accelerate the production of clean energy, and to diversify energy supplies
The results analyzed in the report enable decision-makers of Proxigas to plan how to navigate the transformation. Among others, the report highlights the role of innovative gases such as hydrogen and biomethane in meeting future molecule demands.
Methodology and models
We developed the scenario by using an integrated energy system model built with TIMES, namely the TIMES4Italia model. TIMES4Italia is designed to analyze the role of technologies and innovation in achieving ambitious plans to reduce climate-changing emissions and mitigate climate change.
The TIMES model is internationally recognized and developed under The Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program (ETSAP). ETSAP is a Technology Collaboration Programme of the International Energy Agency (IEA).
TIMES4Italia has been developed by E4SMA.
Highlights from the report
- Demand for gas is estimated to decrease by more than 85 pct. Meanwhile, the negative consequences of this reduction will partly be mitigated by the increase in hydrogen and biomethane production.
- Fossil fuels are expected to reduce their importance in the energy mix, accounting only for 11 percent by 2050.
- Solar, biomethane, biomass, and wind are estimated to constitute about 70 pct. of the energy supply by 2050.
- Electricity production is estimated to have increased more than 90 pct. by 2050 compared to 2019 levels. The use of gas for electricity production will be phased out from 2040-2050.
| Country: Italy
| Client: Proxigas (formerly Anigas)
| Contact person: Alessandro Chiodi
| Activities: TIMES4Italia model analysis, study, reporting
| Duration: March 2022 – January 2023
Graphic credits: Freepik
